Shared decision and learning engine

Cambium

cambium-ai · import cambium

Routes work across deterministic, statistical, and generative methods, and learns from measured outcomes.

Shared platform component. Domain applications are documented separately.

Shared across domains
Scope
deterministic → statistical → generative
Resolution
record → observe → score → reweight
Feedback
Local implementation under test
Competition extension

Cambium provides reusable intelligence across business domains. It minimizes necessary model inputs, records cost, scores predictions against observed outcomes, and updates trust. Each application supplies its targets, evidence and acceptance criteria. Financial forecasts are one application of these contracts.

What’s inside

Cost-tiered resolution

Tries less expensive methods before a generative call, subject to confidence and budget rules.

Distillation and cost accounting

Reduces model inputs and records measured usage without tying the caller to one provider.

Outcome-driven adaptation

Scores observed outcomes and updates strategy and attribute weights through reusable contracts.

Model competition: local implementation

Candidate identities, time-aware mean and Brier losses, paired comparisons, and group-balanced blend arithmetic. Automatic promotion remains planned.

Typed claims and evidence

Keeps the strength and provenance of a claim explicit, including what evidence is missing.

Progressive anchoring

Tracks commitment from explicit events. Its regime interpretation remains provisional.

Shared intelligence across domains

Cambium supplies decision and learning primitives. A domain defines its question, inputs, target and acceptable evidence. Cambium does not hardcode stock returns, legal outcomes or learning objectives.

The resolution ladder tries deterministic logic, then statistical methods, then generative models. Distillation reduces necessary model inputs; the cost ledger records usage. A confident response still has to satisfy the caller's permissions and acceptance criteria.

Learning from outcomes

The existing adaptive loop records predictions, observes outcomes, scores results and updates strategy and attribute weights. Applications provide their own persistence adapters and use the resulting trust in their decisions. A higher score is evidence about past behavior, not a promise about a future answer.

Model competition: pre-production release candidate

The release candidate adds reproducible candidate identities, prediction timing contracts, mean squared error and Brier scoring, matched comparisons, and group-balanced weighted means and medians. These are generic Cambium primitives. They do not own a database, user interface or financial target.

The scientist role and access checks belong to Canopy and the serving application. Timber supplies the data and plugin substrate. The first scientist workbench is an Investments application of these shared capabilities. It is a pre-production application, not a claim that every domain has a deployed scientist dashboard.

Evaluation and extension

Each domain must choose scoring rules appropriate to its outcome and preserve what was knowable when a prediction was issued. Market-specific overlap handling, walk-forward evaluation and return targets live in the financial evaluation packages. They are described in Investments.

The candidate also provides scheduled, matched model selection and historical residual grouping. A challenger needs sustained evidence on consecutive reviews; sparse or incomplete evidence retains the incumbent. Applications own rollout and must validate the statistical assumptions for their targets. The first application runs in an isolated forward shadow ledger, outside production trust. New model adapters join the same contracts without another learning engine.

Read the next layer

Timber explains models, persistence and service discovery. Investments explains the financial models, market evidence and domain-specific workbench built on those foundations.

Connects to